David Mosse
Soccer Analyst
The ink is barely dry on one of the most hotly contested Oscars races in recent memory, which culminated with “Anora” taking home the prize for Best Picture. But the business end of the European club season represents the pivotal stretch in a race of a different kind.
Later this year, the Ballon d’Or will be handed out for the 69th time, crowning the best player in the world during the 2024-25 campaign. And the choice is likely to generate a strong reaction, as evidenced by the furor last October when Rodri pipped Vinícius Júnior for the award.
The Ballon d’Or, originally only for Europeans, eventually became open to players of all nationalities. Yet if history is any indication, those plying their trade outside of Europe need not apply. Lionel Messi did play two matches for Inter Miami during the voting period for his 2023 triumph, but the eight-time winner was excluded from the 30-player shortlist the following year.
The UEFA Champions League, as always, will play a prominent role in determining the next winner, while competitions like the UEFA Nations League and the expanded Club World Cup could influence voting as well. The following six players are shaping up to be prime contenders for the most prestigious individual honor in the game.
Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid/France
How do you plausibly argue that you improved a team which had seemingly won everything without you? In Kylian Mbappe’s case, it’s by leading Real Madrid to their first-ever treble, a distinct possibility given that Los Blancos find themselves in the Champions League quarters, the Copa Del Rey final, and just four points back of Barcelona at the top of La Liga.
Accomplishing such a feat would quell the Kevin Durant/Golden State Warriors comparisons and would make Mbappe the prohibitive favorite for the Ballon d’Or. After a slow start this season, he’s been in devastating form the past few months, amassing 33 goals in all competitions to equal Cristiano Ronaldo’s output from his debut Real Madrid campaign.
Mbappe and Ronaldo could square off in June in the UEFA Nations League. France will face Spain in the semis, then either Portugal or Germany in the final, the sort of marquee matches in which Mbappe can further boost his candidacy. And guiding Real Madrid to Club World Cup glory in the United States, wouldn’t hurt his Ballon d’Or chances either.
Raphinha, FC Barcelona/Brazil
Raphinha’s first two seasons at Barcelona were better than he’s given credit for. He managed double-digit goals and assists in both. But his third campaign is proving to be one of the great leveling ups in history, with the 28-year-old a big reason why Barcelona fans are dreaming of a first Champions League crown since 2015 and their third treble since 2009.
With 27 goals and 18 assists, Raphinha is on track for the most productive campaign by any Brazilian in Barcelona history, not a bad feat when that list includes Romario, Ronaldo, Rivaldo, Ronaldinho and Neymar. He’s also been about the only standout for Brazil the past few months, save for a disastrous performance against Argentina last time out.
Raphinha is probably helped by the absence of a major international tournament this summer. The 2024 Copa America effectively cost Vinicius Junior the Ballon d’Or and given that Brazil have become the Manchester United of national teams, its difficult to imagine them performing well in any competition right now, which means Raphinha might’ve suffered the same fate.
Lamine Yamal, FC Barcelona/Spain
Vinicius Junior also lost out on the 2024 Ballon d’Or because two of his Real Madrid teammates, Jude Bellingham and Dani Carvajal, finished in the top 4. And it could be Barcelona players splitting the vote this time around. Both Robert Lewandowski and Pedri may hamper Raphinha’s candidacy, while Lamine Yamal is emerging as a legitimate contender himself.
The 17-year-old has followed up his Euro 2024 exploits with a sensational campaign, registering 13 goals and 18 assists in all competitions. And even those numbers don’t do justice to a player displaying a level of precociousness not seen his Pele. Not even Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo were this good at this age.
Should Barcelona enjoy a triumphant end to this season, its entirely possible that Yamal shines so brightly, the successes feel more attributable to him than anyone else. The Brazilian Ronaldo remains the youngest Ballon d’Or winner, having captured the prize at the age of 21 (1997). Yamal’s meteoric rise means that record is in serious jeopardy, maybe as early as this year.
Ousmane Dembele, PSG/France
The brilliance of Raphinha and Lamine Yamal means no Barcelona fan is lamenting the departure of Ousmane Dembele. But the 27-year-old has blossomed this season into the very player the Blaugrana hoped they were signing in the summer of 2017 when Dembele was brought in as the replacement for the PSG-bound Neymar.
Occupying a more central role in PSG’s attack, Dembele has been unplayable since the turn of the year, finding the back of the net 24 times in 20 matches in all competitions, which includes a second-leg winner at Anfield in the Champions League round of 16. And his dribbling remains as dazzling as ever, with the ambidextrous Dembele able to chop with either foot in any direction.
Another Ligue 1 title won’t boost his candidacy that much, despite PSG threatening to pull off an Invincibles campaign. But guiding the capital club to a long-awaited Champions League crown in this first post-Mbappe season would be truly historic, perhaps even propelling Dembele past his more heralded France teammate for the Ballon d’Or.
Harry Kane, Bayern Munich/England
It remains one of the great travesties that the Ballon d’Or was cancelled in 2020, depriving then-Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski of a prize he had earned by leading the Bavarian giants to a treble. Bayern supporters are also convinced that Franck Ribery was robbed in 2013 when he finished third behind Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi.
Harry Kane represents their best hope this time around. The 31-year-old is closing in on the very first trophy of his career, with Bayern pulling away in the Bundesliga. And he continues to deliver in front of goal, having found the back of the net 34 times in 39 matches in all competitions. But Champions League glory is likely required for him to claim the Ballon d’Or.
The good news is Kane has saved his best for Europe’s premier competition. His 10 Champions League goals this season are second only to Raphinha (11). Englishman Sir Stanley Matthews was the first Ballon d’Or recipient back in 1956, and if Kane produces a strong finish to the campaign, this is one award that might just be coming home.
Mohamed Salah, Liverpool FC/Egypt
Spare a thought for Mohamed Salah who’s enjoying one of the great statistical seasons by anyone not named Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo. Not long ago, it seemed a distinct possibility that Salah would become the first African to capture the Ballon d’Or since George Weah took home the prize in 1995, the first year it was open to non-European players.
But such is the power of the Champions League that once Liverpool succumbed to PSG in the round of 16, the Egyptian’s chances decreased drastically, despite his 32 goals and 22 assists in all competitions. The Reds also fell to Newcastle in the Carabao Cup final and will have to content themselves with “only” the Premier League title this season.
Salah’s only Ballon d’Or path is to continue performing at stratospheric levels, and to hope that one of Aston Villa, Arsenal, Dortmund or Inter win the Champions League. None of those teams possesses a viable candidate, though hipsters would surely try to manufacture one, and such a scenario would reopen the race, possibly relaunching Salah’s candidacy.
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