The NCAA Tournament is nearly here, with conference tournament play already underway across Division-I.
With March Madness upon us, it got us thinking— which teams truly cause the “madness”? And what were the largest underdogs to win from a point spread perspective? Using our NCAA Tournament database, we were able to find the 10 biggest underdogs to win a tournament game since 1985— which is the same year the big dance expanded to 64 teams.
Every team on the list was at least a 15-point underdog in their matchup, while some were as high as 20+ point ‘dogs despite winning outright. Let’s take a look:
10 biggest underdogs to win an NCAA Tournament game, since 1985
Starting off the list, the 15th seeded Golden Eagles took down 2-seed Ohio State in the Round of 64 despite being 15-point underdogs. The game was an absolute thriller, with Oral Roberts squeaking out a 75-72 overtime win. At the time, they were just the ninth 15 seed ever to win a first round game. They were led by Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor, who combined for 59 points in the upset. Oral Roberts would make it all the way to the Sweet 16, losing by two points to Arkansas in that round.
Just three seasons ago, Princeton began a magical run to the Sweet 16 with a massive win against Arizona in another 15 vs 2 upset. It was the Tigers’ first tournament win since 1998, with Tosan Evbuomwan leading the way with 15 points in a 59-55 win. Arizona was fresh off winning the Pac-12 Tournament, but Princeton was able to hold them scoreless for the final 4:43 of the game. At the time, it marked the third straight year a No. 15 seed won in the first round.
The 15th seeded Blue Raiders only lasted until the second round in the 2016 NCAA Tournament, but their 90-81 first round win against second-seeded Michigan State as 17-point underdogs was one to remember. The Spartans had just captured the Big Ten Tournament title and entered the tournament with a 29-5 record. Four Blue Raiders scored 15+ points in the game, with Reggie Upshaw Jr. leading the way with 21. Middle Tennessee was just the eighth No. 15 seed to knock off a No. 2 seed since the 64-team format began in 1985.
In just the second year of the 64-team format, Little Rock took down a 23-5 Notre Dame team in the first round, becoming just the second 14-seed ever to take down a 3-seed. Michael Clarke, Myron Jackson, and Pete Myers each scored over 20 points for Little Rock in a 90-83 win. Coincidentally, the first 14-seed to do so also came in the 1986 NCAA Tournament— with Cleveland State taking down Indiana as 6.5-point underdogs. Little Rock would go on to lose to NC State in an overtime game the following round.
Just the fourth 15-seed ever to take down a 2-seed, Hampton was down 11 points in this game before ending it on a 14-2 run. They held the Cyclones scoreless for the final 7:01 of the game, with Tarvis Williams leading the way with 16 points, 13 rebounds and six blocks. He also hit the shot to give Hampton the lead with 6.9 seconds, which would end up being the game-winning bucket at 58-57. The Pirates would go on to lose to Georgetown in the following round.
Every game up until this point was decided by single digits. But Coppin State’s first round win over South Carolina came by a whopping 13 points, making them the third 15-seed to take down a 2-seed and the first to do so by double digits. Antoine Brockington and Danny Singletary combined for 42 points and eight steals for the Eagles. They’d go on to lose by one point to Texas in the Round of 32.
No team on this list made a further run in the tournament than the 2022 Saint Peter’s squad, with Shaheen Holloway orchestrating a magical run to the Elite 8. That run started off with a win against blue-blood Kentucky in a game that ended 85-79. The Peacocks became the 10th 15-seed to win in the first round since the expansion to 64 teams in 1985, and also handed John Calipari’s his first loss in the opening round of the tournament as Kentucky’s head coach. Holloway & Co. would go on to lose to North Carolina in the Elite 8, and to this day are the only 15-seed to make it that far in the tournament.
The first 20-point underdog to win an NCAA Tournament game since expansion in 1985, 15-seed Santa Clara got a three-point victory over Arizona in a 64-61 barn-burner. Steve Nash was the face of Broncos, but was held to 1-of-7 shooting from the floor. Still, the future two-time NBA MVP did enough to lead his team to victory— finishing with 10 points, seven rebounds and four assists while shooting 8-for-10 on free throws. They became just the second 15-seed ever to win in the opening round, and would go on to lose to Temple in the Round of 32.
Some consider this one of the greatest upsets in all of sports history, as UMBC became the first 16-seed to take down a 1-seed in NCAA Tournament history (since expansion in 1985). To put it into further context, entering the game— 16 seeds were a whopping 0-135 against 1-seeds. And to further illustrate how incredible this upset was, they are 2-154 entering the 2025 NCAA Tournament. What’s even more special is that the game wasn’t close, as UMBC won 74-54. They’d go on to lose to Kansas State by seven points in the following round. The 2018 edition of the tournament was also the first one ever to see each of the top four seeds in a single region (South) not make the Sweet 16.
The 2012 NCAA Tournament was a special one, as it was the first ever in which two 15 seeds won in the Round of 64 in the same tournament. Lehigh took down Duke as 12-point underdogs, but the real shocker came from Norfolk State— as they took down Missouri despite being 21.5-point underdogs. Led by future NBA veteran Kyle O’Quinn, the Spartans pulled off an 86-84 victory in a thriller of a game that saw 22 lead changes in its entirety. The five starters for North Dakota State accounted for all 86 points, and shot 10-of-19 from beyond the arc (52.6%). They’d go on to lose to Florida in the following game.
Earlier we mentioned that 16 seeds were 2-154 against 1-seeds all-time in the tournament, and that UMBC was the first team to get such a win. So which team got the second? In 2023, the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights did the unthinkable— taking down a 29-5 Purdue team after barely making the tournament as a First Four participant. The Boilermakers were led by two-time National Player of the Year and future first round pick Zach Edey, who finished that year sixth in Division-I in scoring (22.3 points per game) and second in rebounding (12.9 rebounds per game). While he still finished with 21 points and 15 rebounds in the game, the shortest team in all of Division-I that season was able to pull off a 63-58 victory. The Knights didn’t even win their conference tournament that season, losing to Merrimack by one point in the title game. Because Merrimack could not participate in the tournament due to an NCAA rule that bans colleges from postseason play during a four-year transition from Division II, FDU was therefore thrust into action. Talk about taking advantage of an opportunity.
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