The 3,000 hit club is an exclusive one.
Consider: in the long, long history of Major League Baseball and the proto leagues that preceded it, over 20,000 players have suited up for at least one game. Of those, just 1,393 players reached 1,000 career hits. And merely 670 of those made it to 1,500 — there are more players than that on active rosters in MLB right now. All of 297 of those 670 players would then reach 2,000 career hits, 101 of those made it to 2,500, and all of 33 players that have ever played have crossed the 3,000-hit threshold.
New York Mets’ shortstop Francisco Lindor is the latest, as of Monday night’s contest, to join the 1,500-hit club. It’s still an exclusive one, but its exclusivity is nothing compared to that of the 3,000-hit club. Which is to say that Lindor’s chances at 3,000 hits are not great.
They aren’t nonexistent; it’s a distinct possibility that Lindor, who has had extraordinary health and a high baseline of production for much of his 11-season career, makes it to 3,000 if he plays beyond his current contract with the Mets and remains at a high level for much of that time. But of all the incredible players to play in MLB, of the many, many Hall of Famers and stars, again, just 33 of them ever managed to pick up at least 3,000 hits. The odds are not in his favor, given his age, and he is just now picking up number 1,500.
What about the rest of the active hit leaders, though? Let’s take a look at those with realistic chances of reaching this exclusive milestone (apologies to Andrew McCutchen and Paul Goldschmidt, but you’re a little too far away and a little too gray for consideration here, despite sitting third and fourth on that leaderboard, respectively).
Hits: 2,270
Age: 35
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ first baseman is the active hit leader, and doesn’t appear to be that far off from 3,000 hits. However, he’ll turn 36 before the season ends, and is still 730 hits away. Three more seasons at the pace he put up between 2022 and 2024 would still leave him 166 short. Which is doable, but assuming he’s going to be exactly as good as he was in his early 30s through his mid- and into his late-30s is giving him — or anyone, really — a lot of credit. Consider, too, that Freeman notched 153 hits in 2024, after leading the league in 2022 and then following that up with 211 knocks in 2023. If he’s going to average closer to 150 or so per year from here on out, that significantly changes the pace.
Which is not to say that Freeman can’t pull it off. Health is probably his most significant hurdle, which tends to be more of a struggle as players get older. But it’s at least easy enough to envision Freeman becoming the 34th member of the 3,000-hit club, given just how good he’s been, so long as he can stay on the field.
Hits: 2,247
Age: 35
Altuve is a fascinating case, as his career took off back when he was a high-average guy racking up hits. Altuve led the American League in hits in four consecutive years, from 2014 through 2017, and also won batting titles in three of those seasons. He hasn’t come very close to those levels since: Altuve collected 1,189 hits in his first six full seasons in the bigs, and then 982 in his next seven. Second basemen tend to age poorly, since they were at that position in the first place given they were missing something in their tool and skill sets that allowed them to play shortstop instead, but to this point, Altuve has held on strong.
He’s an outfielder now, of course, but that doesn’t change anything on the offensive profile side for our purposes. Altuve turns 35 next month, so even though he’s a few hits behind Freeman, he’s a little ahead of his pace. If he can stay on the field — which has been more of a problem since he turned 30, but not a consistent one — then, like Freeman, 3,000 hits isn’t out of the question. Unlike Freeman, it is fair to worry a little about whether his skills will face a sudden drop, though.
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Hits: 1,914
Age: 32
Machado ranks fifth on the active list at the moment — again, apologies to Cutch and Goldschmidt — and has relative youth on his side, given he doesn’t turn 33 until late-July. However, the Padres’ third baseman does play his home games at Petco Park, which depresses offense. That issue isn’t as extreme as it once was, but it still leans pitcher-friendly, and little things like that can be the difference between finishing a career with 3,000 hits or falling just short.
Still, Machado has averaged 158 hits per season since 2021. If he could keep that pace, it would take him seven more years to reach 3,000. He probably won’t keep that pace, though, given how aging works and all, so he might have more of an outside shot at the club than Freeman or Altuve. He’s under contract with the Padres through 2033, his age-40 season, however, so he’ll at least get plenty of chances to make it work by then.
Hits: 1,680
Age: 32
This is where things get real dicey. Harper ranks 10th among active hit leaders: Nolan Arenado has too few hits for his age for real consideration, Carlos Santana is already 39 and over 1,200 away, DJ LeMahieu is 36 and his 2020 season seems like it happened a lifetime ago, while Xander Bogaerts is the same age as his teammate, Machado, and over 200 hits behind his already iffy pace.
Harper is an outside shot, too, but it feels like he shouldn’t be discounted solely because he’s Bryce Harper. Health is his most pressing concern — on top of the pandemic-shortened 2020 that everyone else in his cohort suffered through statistically, he also missed 63 games in 2022 and 36 in 2023, and has cleared 150 games just three times in a career that began in 2012. If Harper can stay on the field, though, and if he can continue to be Bryce Harper in all the ways that matter, then maybe something magical could happen here, and he’ll surprise us all.
Hits: 1,654
Age: 33
What could have been. Mike Trout would be a Hall of Famer if he retired right now as this sentence is being typed, but that doesn’t mean 3,000 hits will happen. What’s frustrating about Trout’s case is that he had his first 1,380 hits by the end of the 2020 season, and managed to add just another 268 over the next four years due to incessant injuries — that hit total is actually higher than his games played count from the same stretch.
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From 150 hits per season down to 67 — injuries are a career killer. Trout’s move out of center and into a corner outfield spot could end up keeping him healthier in both the short- and long-term, but as far as 3,000 hits goes, the damage has already been done.
Hits: 1,626
Age: 32
Betts won’t turn 33 until October, and while he needs a ton of hits to make it to 3,000 — he’s only a little over halfway there and older than Lindor — he has the benefit of being an exceptional athlete whose hand-eye coordination and quick wrists play a significant role in just how productive he’s been over the years. Betts is unlikely to reach 3,000 hits by the time he hits 40 years old — that would require 171 hits per season from here on out — but if he’s willing and able to stick around into his 40s, then there’s a chance. It’s not a great one, no, but if anything, that just highlights how difficult 3,000 hits is. Trout and Betts are two of the most dynamic, exciting and unbelievably talented players to ever suit up for an MLB game. They also are more likely than not to be denied entry to this most prestigious club.
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