The 2025 Six Nations comes to its conclusion this weekend, as another Super Saturday rolls around to determine the champions. Read below for all the permutations…
Three nations remain in with a shout of winning the championship in the shape of France, England and Ireland, and all three avoid each other on the final day.
Ireland travel to play Italy in Rome first up (2.15pm kick-off), England then face Wales in Cardiff (4.45pm), before France host Scotland in Paris (8pm).
France heavy title favourites
Off the back of their statement thrashing of previous Six Nations favourites and two-time defending champions Ireland in Dublin, France are essentially one victory away from claiming the championship for the first time since 2022 and just a second time since 2010.
Les Bleus – without talisman Antoine Dupont due to his ACL knee injury – host Scotland at Stade de France knowing a bonus-point victory (a win while scoring four tries or more) will guarantee them the title, no matter what happens elsewhere.
That is because France currently sit one point above England in the standings and two above Ireland. As such, no other side can reach 21 competition points.
France are on the cusp of a first Six Nations title since 2022 and only a second since 2010
A victory even without a bonus-point is extremely likely to seal the title for France too, due to the fact Fabien Galthie’s charges are 86 points above England before a ball is kicked in terms of points difference.
In the Six Nations, points difference is the determining factor should sides be level in the table, and not head-to-head records. Therefore, England’s round-two victory over France will matter not.
England require bonus-point victory in Cardiff and hope France slip up
For England, their equation is pretty simple too. Owing to the huge differential in points difference with France, England must beat Wales and hope Scotland do them a favour in Paris.
Sky Sports’ James Cole assesses England’s win over Italy
Steve Borthwick’s side are also likely to need a try bonus point if they are to win the title, due to Ireland playing Italy first on Saturday and so likely to rack up a bonus-point win and plenty of points to move ahead of them.
If England win with a bonus point in Cardiff, there is nothing Ireland can do to overtake them – a situation hardly imaginable when looking at the contrasting form of both sides this year.
After Sunday’s bonus-point win over Italy, England remain in the title hunt on the final day for the first time since 2020
An England bonus-point win and France defeat to Scotland would see Borthwick’s side to the title.
Ireland need bucketload of points in Rome, England to lose/miss out on bonus-point and France to lose
For so long the only side still on for a Grand Slam and one in search of history to become the first to win three successive championship titles outright, Ireland’s severely damaging loss at home to France leaves them with little hope on the final day.
Not only did the defeat edge them behind France, but in failing to pick up a bonus-point from the loss in Dublin – in addition to only scoring two tries in victory over Wales in round three – Ireland now sit a point behind England too, and seven points worse off in terms of points difference.
Ireland knew they’d likely blown their chance even at a title – not to mind Grand Slam – after such a damaging loss to France
Ireland play first on Saturday at Stadio Olimpico and so are likely to move to the top of the standings for a couple of hours at least.
But they need four tries and then some to leave Rome with a bonus-point win and a much healthier points difference to have any hope.
A bonus-point win would move Ireland four points above England, and if Borthwick’s side were to lose or win without scoring four tries, points difference would decide who finishes above the other.
The above is all moot if France go on to win in the last game, of course, but if Les Bleus lose it could come down to very fine margins between Ireland and England.
England struggling for form but fighting for title on final day for first time since 2020
After seven tries and – in the end – a comfortable England home victory over Italy on Sunday, it would be harsh to be critical of a side that has now moved above Ireland into second in the Six Nations standings and sits just one point shy of title favourites France.
What’s more, England head to Cardiff on the final day still involved in the title race, which is something they have not been able to say for the last four campaigns, dating back to 2020.
And yet. Sunday’s scoreline may have been emphatic but the first 43 minutes of the clash was anything but as Italy worried and stretched England, matching them score for score. A quick three-try burst killed off Italy but England then went from the 53rd minute until the final play without any tries in between.
England have been extremely patchy this Six Nations and were fortunate to beat France and Scotland
In the opening round, they were 27-10 behind to Ireland in Dublin until four minutes to play, when two very late tries burgled a scarcely deserved losing bonus point.
In round two, France passed up three or four huge try opportunities before being beaten at the last by Elliot Daly’s try, while round three saw Scotland dominate the game at Twickenham but fail to add the points for such dominance as England were booed for their negative game-plan.
Even then, Finn Russell had a last-gasp conversion to win the game for the visitors but struck wide.
England have not played well this Six Nations, of that there is little debate. But they have found a way to win, which is never a bad habit, for confidence as much as anything. It’s also a far more pleasant spot to build from.
Itoje’s England have struggled to perform for large swathes of all four Six Nations fixtures so far
France hold all the aces going into the final day at home to Scotland, and unless England score four tries in Cardiff, you’d imagine Ireland will finish above them too, as the defending champions will be heading to Italy angry and looking to rack up a big score.
Were things to play out in an unexpected way and England lift this Six Nations trophy, it will be one of the most bizarre championship wins in memory.
Marcus Smith put the frustration of being dropped behind him to score one of six England tries in victory over Italy
“The team are always trying to play the way we want them to play. Through the planning we have, trying to develop and evolve, and build a togetherness as a team, this is an England team which is on a journey. Today was another step forward,” Borthwick said after Sunday’s victory.
The final day is intriguingly set up, if nothing else.
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