Fresh from tipping Ipswich to beat Bournemouth, our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League weekend.
Everton vs Arsenal, Saturday 12.30pm
Gabriel Martinelli. Remember him? The rampaging, all-action winger that consistently tore apart Premier League full-backs? Well, he’s back from his season of struggles based on his performance in the 2-1 win over Fulham. He was direct, he was dangerous and his numbers were impressive.
The assist he grabbed was one of five chances he created for his teammates and as my colleague Nick Wright outlined in his excellent “Radar” column, Martinelli’s total of 19 one-on-ones over the course of the game was his joint-highest all season. The Brazilian has now scored or assisted in four of his last six games and it’s a trend worth jumping on at the prices. He’s 5/4 with Sky Bet to score or assist here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Crystal Palace vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
It would be a mistake to read too much into Crystal Palace’s lacklustre showing at Southampton.
I’d rather assess them over a bigger sample size and put that outlier performance down to a bit of fatigue following their FA Cup win at Fulham. Since the middle of November, Palace’s defensive process based on expected goals against is the fourth best in the Premier League at 1.15 per 90. Oliver Glasner’s side won the reverse fixture comfortably 3-1 at the Amex and they can repeat the feat with 11/8 on offer for the home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
After doing the business for me in midweek at 7/1 against Bournemouth, I’m going to stay on the Tractor train.
Highlights from the Premier League match between Bournemouth and Ipswich
Wolves are favourites for this one which just doesn’t feel right to me in a game they don’t need to win. A draw would be just fine for them to keep the gap at nine points. That type of mentality knowing a draw is a good result is a dangerous one against a team that need to win.
Also, Wolves are still without Matheus Cunha who is still suspended.
On paper it looks like they haven’t missed him, taking seven points from nine but their underlying attacking process in those game shows they’ve struggled to create without him. In those three games against Everton, Southampton and West Ham they lost the aggregate expected goals battle 1.9 vs 4.1. That’s quite alarming to me based on the level of opposition they were facing.
Ipswich to win at 17/10 with Sky Bet looks a great bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Ipswich to win (17/10 with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Jarrod Bowen’s tweak in position under Graham Potter has seen a significant spike in his fouls drawn data.
This positional change to play more centrally has seen his fouls won data go through the roof as he’s involved in more of the hustle and bustle in the midfield area. He’s been fouled at least twice in all seven of his starts under Potter and in total he’s drawn 16 fouls in those seven games.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth have made the most fouls of any team in the Premier League as they are very aggressive in midfield where they can be left exposed once a team beats the press.
It’s just 4/7 with Sky Bet though for Bowen to be fouled at least twice as the markets have noticed this trend so adding under 3.5 goals into the bet through the BuildABet function gets the price to 5/4. The last nine games under Potter have gone under 3.5 and Bournemouth arrive low on confidence, so goals should be in short supply.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There is such a fresh, revitalised feel about Aston Villa.
Usually when assessing teams I like to draw the data for the entire season to rate a team and look for angles but I think a lot of Villa’s games from earlier in the season, where they were managing Champions League and nursing a hefty injury list, are quite irrelevant now.
It’s all about the here and now when analysing Villa and I thought they were very impressive at Brighton.
Over the season, Villa’s defensive process on the road is actually the fifth worst of any team, conceding 1.75 expected goals against per game. But at Brighton, they restricted a team who have been scoring for fun to just 0.9 expected goals and grabbed a clean sheet.
Villa haven’t lost at Villa Park in the Premier League or Champions League for 19 games now, since losing to Arsenal on August 24.
If you take Forest’s 1-0 win at Liverpool out of the equation and concentrate on their other seven games against top 10 teams away from home this season, they are conceding 2.7 goals per game in those matches.
I think Villa win this one quite comfortably.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Saturday 5th April 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
Brentford vs Chelsea, Sunday 2pm
Nicolas Jackson has been missed by Chelsea.
Jackson showed against Tottenham he offers Chelsea such a great base to play off, from his powerful running in behind to holding up the ball to bring the likes of Cole Palmer into the game.
FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League match between Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur.
His influence stacks up both on the eye test and the what the data is telling us. Without him for nine games, Chelsea created just an expected goals per 90 figure of 1.10 and scored just 1.25 goals per 90. It was a soft run of fixtures too having played Leicester, Southampton and FC Copenhagen twice.
And, when Jackson plays, Chelsea average 1.9 goals per game and take 1.9 points per game. A huge spike.
Jackson has scored in the last two meetings with the Bees and he can lead the charge by netting another in an away win at 100/30 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Fulham vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Liverpool need a maximum of 13 points from their remaining eight games to bag the Premier League title.
Arne Slot is playing the game very nicely – he has Liverpool very hard to beat. Nothing flashy. Just very professional.
That is enough at this stage of the season such is the position they find themselves in.
Slot’s team remain on a very impressive unbeaten run in the league. It’s now 26 games since they last tasted defeat – it’s the club’s second-longest unbeaten Premier League run and their fourth-longest unbeaten league run in the club’s entire history. Liverpool are also the only team in English football unbeaten away from home this season. An away win looks good at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
Jamie Carragher once remarked that Diogo Jota is Liverpool’s best Premier League finisher – and I totally agree with him. Yes, even better than Mohamed Salah.
Jota’s numbers back that theory up. The Portugal forward averages a goal every 142 minutes in the Premier League for Liverpool – that’s a better record than Michael Owen (143) and Robbie Fowler (159).
Jota scored the winner in midweek against and I’m always interested in backing Jota to score when he’s looking this sharp and busy in front of goal. Him to score in a Liverpool win comes in at 100/30.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Sunday 6th April 1:00pm
Kick off 2:00pm
Tottenham vs Southampton, Sunday 2pm
With Ange-ball now a thing of the past at Tottenham despite him still being in a job, the prices surrounding goals in Spurs matches are too skewed towards past data.
Yes, this Tottenham team have been full of goals in the Ange Postecoglou era – for example, between his first game in charge and January 31 this year, the total match average for goals was coming in at 3.6.
However, in the last eight games, their matches have only averaged 2.38 goals per 90 and their attacking play has become very stale.
With Tottenham’s season on the line in their next fixture against Frankfurt in the Europa League, it’s easy to foresee them just being in job-done mode for this one. All this makes the under 3.5 goals play at 8/11 with Sky Bet very attractive.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Under 3.5 goals (8/11 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Based on Manchester United’s clear issues in attack, they are impossible to back here at a price like 9/4 with Sky Bet, especially from what we’ve seen from Manchester City in the last three halves of football.
In 135 minutes against Bournemouth and Leicester they’ve faced just one shot and total expected goals of 0.02. There was a clear sign of balance in the Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol partnership with Nico O’Reilly looking composed on the left.
It wouldn’t surprise me if City win this derby without conceding.
However, Omar Marmoush to score anytime at 6/5 with Sky Bet is the better punting option.
FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Manchester City’s win against Leicester in the Premier League.
He’s on a run of scoring in his last three games now and has already got six goals in total in his last six starts. And I just love how positive he is with the ball, always looking forward and loves to get shots away – he fired a whopping nine against Leicester.
I’m assuming he’s going to be on penalties too with Erling Haaland out which I think adds a little extra edge to that anytime price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Leicester vs Newcastle, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Leicester posted an expected goals tally of 0.02 in the defeat at Manchester City. An extraordinary achievement.
It’s the lowest by any top-flight team all season – beating Newcastle’s 0.04 against Crystal Palace.
Leicester have now lost 15 of their last 17 games in all competitions and are on a run of seven successive Premier League defeats without scoring. That’s the first time that’s happened in the history of the football club.
I’m not sure playing at home is going to help them here – things could get ugly.
Newcastle should be capable of scoring multiple goals and the way to back some value in that outcome is to put your faith in Jacob Murphy to assist at 9/4 with Sky Bet. He has eight assists in his last 20 starts for the Toon and has developed excellent chemistry with Alexander Isak.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-4
Monday 7th April 6:30pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Jones Knows’ best bet…
- 1pt treble on: Ipswich to win, Aston Villa to win & under 3.5 goals in Tottenham vs Southampton (8/1 with Sky Bet)
