Jamie Lynch, our Senior Form Analyst, picks apart every runner in a hot renewal of the Premier handicap at Newbury on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Racing.
After a trio of renewals of 10 runners or fewer – this field bigger and better – the quality is pulled up by the 152-rated Kandoo Kid, making for a proper handicap with a range of 26lbs. On the other hand, the sprinkling of novices bring the mystery and maybe the mastery. Let’s look in depth at those declared.
1. Kandoo Kid
Harry Cobden | Paul Nicholls
He’s from the family of Politologue, which explains his developing talent as well as reverse rationalising the stamina doubts ahead of the Coral Gold Cup, but not a bit of it. Instead, he looked such a strong stayer that he booked his ticket for the Grand National, for which this is openly a maintenance race, but it’s also a £100k race and one in which he was second last year.
The attached string is singular rather than plural, relating to the grander plan, but the evidential case is persuasively strong, given his profile, his progress and his proficiency on a track where his form figures read 2121.
2. Iroko
Jonjo O’Neill Jr | Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero
This high-profile, high-alert handicapper would undoubtedly be favourite for this were he coming this way, but his first preference is Kelso.
3. Midnight River
Cieran Gethings | Dan Skelton
You get the feeling that he’s one of those from the stable who’ll be hitting a spring target with laser-like precision, as he has quickly yet quietly become very well handicapped – now 6lb lower than when winning at the Grand National Festival in 2023.
Midnight River
He’s only raced only five times since then, and two of those have been the Coral Gold Cup. The drier the ground – and the shorter his price – the better his chance of springing back to life.
4. Le Milos
Harry Atkins (7) | Dan Skelton
Small field, veterans’ company, Harry Skelton aboard, and a sub-140 mark: all the reasons why he successfully revived at Warwick are all absent in today’s bigger and better field, for all he won the Coral Gold Cup around here once upon a time.
In theory, Harry Atkins’s 7lb claim reduces the recalibration but, in practice, Le Milos is back in an environment which seems too much for him these days, liable to revert to his mean of underdelivering in the finish.
5. Saint Segal
David Noonan | Jane Williams
It’s like he went to a motivational seminar at the start of December because he has transformed from a cowardly, clumsy chaser into a fiery, focused front-runner. This was articulated by his course and distance win in a small field but accentuated by his second in a hotter handicap at Musselburgh (Scottish Champion Chase) where he was overhauled only by fast-forward novice The Kalooki Kid.
The question is whether the recent Saint Segal is a version or a conversion, but the old pressure points will surely be felt in a race of this nature.
6. Light N Strike
Jack Tudor | Emma Lavelle
Light N Strike had pretensions for top honours in the lesser league of summer jumping back in 2023 but spent 18 months on the sidelines and his two runs back (over hurdles) have been devoid of any encouragement whatsoever, the metaphorical lift descending, while his chase mark has stuck on a higher floor.
7. Paint The Dream
Conor Brace | David Brace
He finished third in this race in 2023 for Fergal O’Brien, off 158 if you don’t mind, but that edition was much thinner and he was much better than he is now at the age of 11 – a shadow of his former self, since a long lay-off.
8. Vincenzo
Dylan Johnston (3) | Sam Thomas
His boutique stable has a 27 per cent strike-rate in handicap chases this season, including two Premier Handicaps with Al Dancer and Katate Dori. That is the upbeat undercoat for painting a positive picture of the novice Vincenzo, whose only defeat over fences came at the hands of Kalif Du Berlais who contested a Grade 1 on his next start.
Vincenzo is heading for Town Moor
His wins either side were by narrowish margins but inherit to that was the two-mile trip (traded far bigger in-running both times), when he’s ready and able for longer distances, getting the chance to flex that muscle now, increasing the improvement range all the more. As such, he’s a must for any shortlist.
9. Kotmask
Caoilin Quinn | Gary and Josh Moore
Well used to these races by now but his indifferent jumping has dragged him down here and there, especially last time, and Newbury is a little less daunting in that regard than his second home of Ascot. He has got the tools and the talent to make his presence felt if his jumping holds up but that is becoming an increasingly big ‘if’ from a punting perspective, and the stable still isn’t firing on all cylinders.
10. Billytherealbigred
Toby Wynne (3) | Oliver Greenall & J Guerriero
Rare record of development for the length and breadth of his improvement, raising his game again last month despite meeting with defeat for the first time in five completed starts for the yard, in a traditionally-strong novices’ handicap at Cheltenham, going with his trademark alacrity and accuracy before collared late by his abnormal stablemate Jagwar.
Only a 5-y-o and only 3 lb higher for Cheltenham, looking lenient, while Toby Wynne is 2/2 on him, but these are different dimensions for Billytherealbigred to contend with, against the bigger boys in open company and a double-figure field.
11. Beau Balko
Ben Bromley (5) | Paul Nicholls
This horse is reliable and resilient but his sequence of seconds – including when 11 lengths adrift of Saint Segal over course and distance – only emphasises that he’s reached his ceiling. He’s was into a bootless battle once more off 129, but in even deeper this time.
Beau Balko goes to post
It goes almost without saying that if Paul Nicholls is to extend his record to ten in this race then it’s far likelier to be courtesy of Kandoo Kid.
12. Scarface
Brendan Powell | Joe Tizzard
Has been holding his own but a winless second season over fences rather begs the question of if not before then why now? At least he’s coming in off his longest break of the campaign, necessary given his weak finish at Ascot, and he’s got the game to grab a place even if it’s hard to envisage him winning.
13. Spyglass Hill
Adam Wedge | F Brennan
Flirted with Graded company in several seasons with Henry de Bromhead but nearing retirement now and last seen in the Foxhunters’ at Aintree almost a year ago, since when he’s switched stables again.
14. Tedley
Jamie Brace (5) | Nigel Twiston-Davies
Got in his chase wins at the start of the winter off marks in the teens and has been pot hunting ever since, back in a handicap this time (after the Kingmaker) but biting off more than he can chew in this grade.
15. Prince Quali
Harry Kimber | Robert Walford
Lively longshot. One of the best-operating stables this season on the quiet and, though Prince Quali has maintained standards rather then moved up, this will be his first go around 2½m in Britain, crying out for it with his placings at Ascot (right behind Kotmask and Scarface) and Haydock before an uncharacteristic early departure last week. There’s also a chance that the first-time cheekpieces give him an extra edge.
16. Booster Bob
Sean Bowen | Olly Murphy
A case of one step forward and two back in his stuttering chase career so far, making him hard to weigh up, but it’s safe to say that I didn’t expect to rock up in a high-end handicap like this at his stage, something of a statement of faith. Has mostly kept to 2m and his two attempts at this sort of trip over hurdles amounted to nothing.
Jamie Lynch’s verdict
In the 20-year history of the Greatwood Gold Cup only three novices have won it. A surprising statistic, but there’s a power pair this time of Billytherealbigred and Vincenzo, with preference for the latter because of what he might have saved up his sleeve for the trip. Of the outsiders, Prince Quali has more upside than most and may be worth an each-way play.
