Liverpool vs PSG: Why Champions League last-16 tie is far from over despite Arne Slot’s side’s victory in Paris | Football Newsnews24

Liverpool may seemingly have one foot in the Champions League quarter-finals after last week’s 1-0 win at Paris Saint-Germain but Arne Slot’s side would be making a huge mistake if they were to underestimate the task facing them when the Ligue 1 champions visit Anfield for the return meeting on Tuesday night.

History is certainly against the Parisians when they travel to Merseyside this week. Of the 27 previous teams to lose the first leg at home in a Champions League knockout tie, only three have progressed.

Meanwhile, on the seven occasions Liverpool have won the first leg away from home, they have gone on to win the return fixture three times, drawing twice and losing twice.

PSG should be warned, though, that even when the Reds did lose the second leg at Anfield, they still managed to make it through both times, in the last 16 against Barcelona in 2006/07 and Inter Milan in 2021/22.

In fact, only once have Liverpool ever won the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie and been eliminated, as happened when Gerard Houllier’s side beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 at Anfield in the last eight in 2001/02, only to go out after a 4-2 loss at the BayArena.

However, while the odds may appear very much stacked against PSG making it through to the quarter-finals – SkyBet give them just a 7/4 chance of winning at Anfield – there are plenty of reasons to hope for Luis Enrique’s side.

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Europe’s most in-form team arrive on Merseyside

Arne Slot was effusive in his praise of PSG ahead of the first leg in the French capital, calling them “one of the strongest teams in Europe”.

In fact, the Liverpool manager even went as far as suggesting the Parisians, rather than the Reds – who topped the table – were actually the best side in the league phase of the competition that preceded the knockouts, according to the “underlying stats”.

Now, while the Dutchman may have been exaggerating slightly to emphasise just what a tricky draw his side had been given, heading into the first leg, PSG were Europe’s most in-form team, having won 10 games in a row in all competitions from the end of January.

That included demolishing Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the previous round, while scoring a continental-high 40 goals in the process, 17 more than second-placed Barcelona.

Looking at their displays in the league stage, when they finished in 15th having been handed the hardest schedule of any side, their overall numbers were impressive.

For instance, PSG completed a league-high 107 dribbles, while they ranked third for touches in the opposition box (304) and fourth for both passes completed (4,639) and completed passes in the opposition’s half (2,556).

Meanwhile, they ranked fifth for overall possession (59.44 per cent) and their expected goals total of 16.37 – they actually scored 14 goals – was the eighth best, all backing up Slot’s observation that the Ligue 1 champions should have actually finished far higher up the standings.

This was all borne out, of course, in a first leg that saw the hosts unleash 27 shots at Liverpool’s goal, the second most on record (since 2003/04) by a side in a Champions League knockout match in which they both failed to score and lost.

Not only that, but last Wednesday’s loss was PSG’s first defeat in any game since November 26 and they arrive on Merseyside having failed to score just once in their 25 league outings this season, with even Slot conceding there was still plenty to play for at Anfield on Tuesday.

“If you look at the performance, then PSG can take a lot of positives towards the game we are going to play in a week,” he said after the first leg. “We know it’s going to be a hard one in a week.”

Good time to face fatigued Reds?

In contrast, Liverpool have been misfiring in attack of late and before Saturday’s laboured win against bottom-of-the-table Southampton, they had not scored more than two in a match across their last seven, with an overall goals-per-game average of 1.57 and an expected goals average of just 1.22 per game.

That is a sign of fatigue and while the Reds fielded virtually their entire XI from Paris on the weekend, Luis Enrique had the luxury of resting almost all of his starting line-up in their 4-1 romp at Rennes.

Can PSG once more dominate the midfield battle?

One area where PSG definitely got the better of the Reds last week – and will be key again at Anfield on Tuesday – was in the midfield.

This will have come as no surprise to Slot and his coaching team, though, with even Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola highlighting this strength of the Parisians after his side’s 4-2 loss at the Parc des Princes in the league format in January.

“PSG were better, they had one more player in midfield with their false nine and it was hard to press him,” said Guardiola of how PSG like to outnumber their opponents in midfield.

When coupled with their monster pressing, including going man to man all over the pitch – which forced Virgil van Dijk to start pumping goal kicks downfield early on last Wednesday, rather than play out from the back as they normally do – then, as Slot acknowledged, PSG become almost impossible to stop.

“They press man to man all over the pitch, that makes it hard for many teams to have a lot of ball possession against them,” he said.

So expect the visitors to adopt a similar tactic on Tuesday evening.

Will magnificent Mendes shine again?

One player in particular who caught the eye in the first encounter was PSG’s marauding full-back Nuno Mendes, who not only managed to keep Liverpool’s Ballon d’Or contender – and perhaps the most in-form forward in Europe – Mohamed Salah in check all night, but who was also a constant attacking threat with his many raids down the left.

The Portugal international won the most duels (11), made the most tackles (8) and made the most final-third entries (15) of any player on the Parc des Princes pitch. His 16 line breaks were only bettered by Vitinha (21) and Marquinhos (20) on the night, while no Liverpool player dribbled past him in the entire match.

If Mendes repeats those numbers on Tuesday, then PSG will surely have a great chance of progressing to the last eight.

Luis Enrique and co’s joie de vivre makes them very dangerous

Luis Enrique had a glint in his eye when asked if his side could beat Liverpool at Anfield on Tuesday, as they must to stand any chance of progressing to the last eight.

“We have nothing to lose and that makes us dangerous,” said the PSG boss. “We are ready for Liverpool. We are going to do it.”

His players have also adopted that tune, with Vitinha telling Canal+: “We will show the team we are, we will show our character. We’ll win there.”

Those words were echoed by team-mate Desire Doue, who said: “We’re confident and convinced we can make something special happen. We go to Anfield to win the game. We can do it”.

We have nothing to lose and that makes us dangerous

They are right, as the Parisians really do have nothing to lose at Anfield, and with only victory sufficing on the night, expect the visitors to adopt a similar approach to that which almost served them so well in the first leg last week.

All of which makes them a very dangerous opponent, as Reds captain Van Dijk was quick to point out after his side’s first-leg win.

“I think they are an outstanding team, a fantastic team. You can see the work rate they put in,” he said.

“We obviously had a debrief after the game about it and you could see them, if they lost the ball, pressing all of them together and running all together.

“It’s a big credit to the manager to put that work in and he made, in my eyes, a world-class team out of it.

“It will be tough on Tuesday and you will all see. I think anyone who before our game over there expected it to be a dominating performance from us, I don’t think they really looked at PSG throughout the season.

“We know that on Tuesday it is going to be as tough, maybe even tougher, because they will have to come and win. It is going to be hard work because they are a world-class team and they showed it against us already.”

Luis Enrique and his players will console themselves with the belief that Alisson, who made a record-equalling nine saves in Paris, surely cannot repeat last week’s player-of-the-match display at Anfield on Tuesday.