Following pre-season testing in Bahrain, Sky Sports F1’s Ted Kravitz selects his pecking order going into the season-opening Australian Grand Prix.
1. McLaren
That’s the one thing that I think everybody can agree on, is that if the Bahrain Grand Prix, even in these conditions, happened tomorrow, it would probably be a McLaren one-two with Lando Norris just shading Oscar Piastri.
Norris has been unashamedly a little bit more positive. It’s weird though, because talking to Piastri this morning, he seemed a bit more downbeat, but you never know about Piastri.
But it looks like it would be a one-two for McLaren. The consensus is that they have two tenths of a second per lap on the field.
2. Ferrari
3. Mercedes
4. Red Bull
You could throw a dustsheet over Max Verstappen’s Red Bull, and Mercedes, and the best of Ferrari, when they’re getting it right.
I have gone for Mercedes and Ferrari the same, and then the inherent pace of the Red Bull is a little bit behind them. But it depends on who’s driving that Red Bull.
Interestingly, Mercedes think Ferrari are just with them, exactly with them, and not even a tenth between them. So, it is very, very finely poised between Ferrari and Mercedes.
But the big question is, where does Max Verstappen come in there? And on a good day, with an amazing Max Verstappen lap, do you think he could beat both Mercedes and Ferrari? It’s possible.
I’m not sure Ferrari have as many issues as some have suggested, because Charles Leclerc’s race run of yesterday (Thursday), was very good, and Hamilton’s saying that the car is pretty good.
5. Williams
6. Alpine
I’m going on the Sainz race run of yesterday, which was solid. Albon has done a good time today, and the Williams looks a good package, and those two drivers, I think, can see it ahead of the Alpine. So, I’m going Williams, then Alpine.
You cannot deny that Sainz-Albon is going to be, when it comes to Melbourne qualifying, more dialled in than Pierre Gasly, who’s going to be right up there, but Jack Doohan has had the kind of test that you would expect from a rookie who is feeling pressure in all areas.
7. Haas
Next is the impossible choice of what on earth Haas will have when it comes to qualifying in Melbourne. Perhaps for no more than a bit of extrapolation from some GPS figures, and fuel corrected, because we think they’ve never run with less than at least half tanks, 50 kilos of fuel in, and there’s such a difference in there, and those 10 kilos is worth three tenths of a second.
You could throw three tenths of a second between Alpine-Williams, Williams-Alpine, Haas, and then RB, they could all be covered by three tenths of a second.
The Haas is a good car, Ayao Komatsu is not worried about its pace, that’s the crucial thing. When I spoke to him yesterday, I said, ‘don’t you need to take the fuel out to see the pace?’ He said, ‘I’m not worried about the pace, I think it’s ok, we need to do that’. So I’m happy with putting Haas directly behind Alpine and Williams.
8. Aston Martin
9. Racing Bulls
I was going to give Aston Martin the benefit of the doubt, they’ve had a very difficult day today here, and Lance Stroll has been ill, his illness made Fernando Alonso go first, then Lance showed up, did half of the afternoon, then had to go home again because he was ill, Fernando Alonso was back in. Compromised, very definitely compromised last day. It’s a blank canvas that Aston Martin, waiting for Adrian Newey.
I was going to give them the benefit of the doubt, until I spoke to Lawrence Stroll, who was leaving, I congratulated him on becoming a grandfather, and he was like, ‘yeah, it’s great being a grandfather, you know, fantastic’.
And then I got to the point of the car, and I said, ‘oh, car looks better’. (Ted imitates a disappointed facial expression pulled by Lawrence Stroll). They’ve dropped back. I’m putting them, with Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll on a good day, ahead of RB. I’m putting them eighth, but they could be ninth.
10. Sauber
It’s an improvement, a little bit from last year, but they’re not really about this year, are they, Sauber? James Key is doing the best he can. It’s reliable-ish. It will give Bortoleto and Hulkenberg a chance to go around, but points, it seems, will be pretty thin on the ground.
It doesn’t have much of a balance, but they can race from there. But if it’s true that Aston Martin is ninth ahead of Sauber, then Adrian Newey’s first day of work on Monday cannot come quickly enough.
When is the first F1 race?
For the first time since 2019, the season-opener will be held in Melbourne at the Australian Grand Prix on March 14-16. The first race has switched from Bahrain to Australia due to Ramadan taking place throughout March.
There are 24 events on the 2025 F1 calendar, the same number as last year, with the season ending at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on December 5-7.
Watch all 24 race weekends from the 2025 Formula 1 season live on Sky Sports F1, starting with the Australian GP on March 14-16. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – No contract, cancel anytime