This is a hugely significant moment. For the first time in more than three years, Washington is lifting sanctions on Moscow instead of imposing them.
It’s the most tangible evidence yet of a US-Russia rapprochement, and a crystal clear signal of Donald Trump’s intentions to turn Vladimir Putin the pariah into Putin the partner.
For now, they’re only talking about easing a handful of restrictions so that Russia’s agricultural and fertiliser exports can return to global markets.
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It’s important to point out that Russian food and fertiliser have, in fact, always been exempt from Western sanctions, but exports were disrupted by Russian banks’ exclusion from the SWIFT global payments system.
It has meant higher fees and delays in payments, even when it comes to cross-border trade with friendly nations.
That’s why Moscow wants sanctions to be lifted on Rosselkhozbank – the state-owned Russian agriculture bank – and for it to be reconnected to SWIFT.
Perhaps the most galling thing for Ukraine will be that Putin seems to have secured this without giving up very much. File pic: AP
One could argue that it’s just one brick in what is still a whole wall of sanctions surrounding Russia. But its removal will nevertheless be massively symbolic.
Ukraine’s Western allies were in lockstep when they built that wall – now its powerful supporter is starting the process of bringing it down.
What’s more, there’ll be fears that Moscow could abuse America’s charity here, particularly when it comes to one of the Kremlin’s other demands – lifting restrictions on the supply of agricultural machinery to Russia.
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Restrictions were imposed on agricultural machinery due to some components being classified as ‘dual-use’ goods, which could potentially aid Russia’s war machine.
What’s to say these fears won’t be realised? That parts meant for tractors and harvesters suddenly find their way into weapon production? Washington might be happy to take Moscow’s word for it, but Kyiv certainly won’t be.
Perhaps the most galling thing for Ukraine and its European allies, however, will be that Mr Putin appears to have secured this without giving up very much at all.
Ukraine and Russia agree sea deal
Yes, Russia has agreed to a maritime ceasefire. But it’s a long way short of a full ceasefire, and it’s something that was first agreed back in July 2022 with the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
Russia withdrew from that deal in 2023, unhappy at the obstacles facing its food and fertiliser exports – sound familiar?
Since then, attacks in the Black Sea have dropped off significantly. In fact, Ukrainian grain exports are pretty much back at pre-war levels already.
So, a maritime ceasefire may not actually make that much of a difference to the conflict itself. The bigger impact will be in Washington and Moscow.
For Mr Trump, it’s something to show off – proof that he’s taken a step closer to peace.
For Mr Putin, it’s Russia’s first step coming back in from the cold.
