Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
If it feels like this recent run of champions, and sports as a whole, has been a little bit chalky and predictable, that feeling would be accurate.
What has resulted for underdog and contrarian bettors has been a bit of a dry spell. So, while there’s little solace to your bank account, know that you aren’t alone.
Let’s review what has happened over the last 10 months or so.
Prior to the college football season, most expected the favorite Georgia (+300) or second choice Ohio State (+325) to win the College Football Playoff. South Point’s Chris Andrews even posted a prop where you could bet those two vs. the field.
It got a little sketchy there for a bit, but Ohio State did win the CFP and that was a good result for the book, as most of the money on the prop was wagered on the field.
“You steered the ship in getting that prop posted,” Andrews said. “It wasn’t looking good for a while, but we got there and did great.”
What wasn’t as good for the books was the run of favorites in the CFP itself. Eleven CFP games were won by 10 favorites (9-2 ATS), with Notre Dame’s win over Penn State as a one-point dog in the Orange Bowl representing the lone game won by an underdog.
Players loaded up on moneyline parlays on the four favorites in the first round, and it was a rocking chair win for the bettors.
“Oh yeah, that was bad — the first round was brutal with the moneyline parlays,” Andrews lamented. “Only the Notre Dame game was OK for us against the spread in the first round. The others we lost pretty good. But as a Penn State fan, I sure couldn’t root for SMU.”
Favorites running through the CFP simply mirrored what was happening in the NFL. If you were a ‘dog player in the NFL, you couldn’t get one to win. It was a terrible season for sharps and the books, while a lot of public bettors were celebrating, hitting over 60% on NFL sides.
NFL favorites won outright at a 72.1% clip this season, the highest percentage since 2005. Favorites covered at a 54.1% clip, also the highest since 2005.
Consider this a warning, however.
If you made a killing on those favorites this season, don’t get too cocky. In 2006, those numbers came crashing down to favorites winning 59.8% of the time and covering just 43.8% of the time.
Will regression rear its ugly head again this year? Underdog bettors and the books are certainly hoping so.
I mentioned the 2005 note to Andrews and got a laugh from him.
“That’s so funny. I told people this was our worst year since 2005, so that makes perfect sense now.
“It was one of those years where everyone seemed to have it figured out. Mostly moneyline parlays, but home favorites, short road favorites — it didn’t seem to matter. One guy even gave credit to AI for all his success.”
“It’s not a big secret that we didn’t do well on moneyline parlays in the NFL,” said John Murray of the SuperBook. “December was just poor. We couldn’t get a ‘dog to win outright.”
“College was OK though, we did very well on Penn State-Boise State and Ohio State-Oregon CFP games. Those ‘dogs were very popular. We had a good future position on Ohio State as well,” added Murray,
“The NFL regular season is really what we’re talking about here. The playoffs were good here. We had a good Super Bowl and Washington beating Detroit outright was a great result for us.”
Even in professional baseball — one of the most random sports historically — the Dodgers (+350) became just the second preseason favorite to win the World Series in the last 15 years (2016 Cubs were the other). It was an all-chalk series as L.A. disposed of the AL favorites and AL champion Yankees in five games.
Can the Yankees win the World Series this year?
About the only sport which stayed true to its wild playoff outcomes was the NHL. The Florida Panthers (+2200 preseason, +800 start of playoffs) defeated the Edmonton Oilers in a dramatic seven-game series to hoist the Stanley Cup for the first time in franchise history.
While the Cup provided drama, the NBA Finals happening at the same time did not.
Preseason favorite Boston (+400) rolled to an easy win over Dallas to capture the NBA title.
Fresh on everyone’s minds, however, is the recent run of favorites and public sides in the NCAA Tournament and at The Masters. And that’s really what spurred me on to write all of this down.
Florida could have been had at 60-1 in December, was at +800 in March when it seemed everyone owned a Gators ticket, and then went into the tourney right there with Duke at +325. It was a charmed, magical run, which could have ended in Round 2 vs. Connecticut, in the Elite Eight vs. Texas Tech, in the Final Four vs. Auburn, and in the title game against Houston.
It was a microcosm of the Tournament as a whole, with seven of the top eight seeds reaching the Sweet 16, all four 1-seeds reaching the Final Four, and just one upset from the Sweet 16 on — that was Houston’s improbable comeback against Duke in the Final Four.
“We lost on parlays in March and that tells the story,” Murray said. “The second weekend was no good. Sweet 16 and Elite Eight favorites went 12-0 straight up, and that was a problem. If we could have gotten either Arkansas to hold on against Texas Tech or Texas Tech to finish off Florida, that obviously would have helped.”
“What’s so unique about the tourney is how the first two days, the public seems to love the ‘dogs. The bracket comes out and everyone talks themselves into the same ’dog, and we’ll need the favorites. In the second round, that worked out good for us. A game like Purdue blowing out High Point was great.”
“We did OK in the futures. I kind of saw it coming with Florida. I had my eyes on them for a while, and we were able to maneuver some things around,” Andrews said.
“Having the matchup exactas and the SEC vs. the field prop helped. We actually were sweating the 3-seed to win the title prop, which Texas Tech was very close to reaching the Final Four. What was funny is that all I heard around town was that everyone needed Houston to beat Duke. I actually needed Duke to beat Houston, and we all saw what happened there. After the tourney, I looked and our hold was 2.1%. I was like, ‘How the hell did we do that?’”
The women’s NCAA Tournament was its usual predictable self, with powerhouse Connecticut winning the title. The seed line said two, but the Huskies rolled through the tourney uncontested as the most bet-on team at BetMGM (18% of the money) to cut down the nets, a position which was strengthened when USC sadly lost star JuJu Watkins to a knee injury.
And that brings us to The Masters.
Rory McIlroy wins Masters in playoff thriller, completes career Grand Slam
No player had more money bet on him to win at BetMGM (19%) than public favorite Rory McIlroy, who was attempting to win the career grand slam for the 11th time. McIlroy is almost a bit of a tragic figure in the sport, given his 2011 collapse at Augusta and last year at the U.S. Open, along with failing to close out the 2022 Open Championship.
The narrative entering the tourney was that it was his time. And as the +650 second choice in the betting and everyone’s pick, McIlroy finally got there. One could actually get a better price on McIlroy after the first round when he double-bogeyed two of the final four holes and shot an opening round 72.
As was the case at BetMGM, the SuperBook had a ton of tickets on McIlroy, but Murray said they did OK there.
“Jeff (Sherman) did a really good job of staying ahead of things with Rory, so it wasn’t a huge liability. By the time Sunday rolled around, we definitely wanted Rory to win as Bryson DeChambeau was bet consistently every day. And after Rory double-bogeyed the first hole, we were like, ‘Here we go,’ but Bryson ultimately fell out of contention, which was good for us.”
My wallet wouldn’t share those same sentiments, considering DeChambeau was my pre-tourney pick.
All price-seekers can hope for is that the worm turns. But don’t expect that to start with the NBA playoffs, where it appears we’re headed towards an inevitable Celtics-Thunder Finals.
And that would be just fine with Andrews and Murray.
“A chalk final would be beautiful for me,” Andrews said. “We’re sweating the Lakers and Warriors. Jimmy Butler is one of my favorite players. We never saw that trade coming, just like with Luka Dončić — a trade out of the blue. Those teams never had a prayer until those deals, but now those two are heavy sweats.”
“Boston-OKC is exactly what we want. We do really well either way,” Murray said.
“The Lakers are a bad result for us. Had we known the Mavs were going to give away Luka Dončić, we could have been a little bit more prepared. But we’ll see what happens. Beating the Timberwolves and then probably Golden State isn’t a given.”
Despite a choppy run, books certainly don’t expect any sympathy. Nor do I expect anyone to be starting a “Root for the Books” podcast anytime soon.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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