Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
The NCAA Tournament has ended, which means a good bit of my focus has shifted to college football.
Season win totals and odds to win conferences are popping up. So here are some schedule notes — or Bear Bytes, as I like to call them — to consider when deciding whether to make a bet.
SMU
SMU had one of the easiest schedules in the ACC last year and rode it all the way to the ACC Championship Game and a CFP berth. However, the Ponies might be a fade this year, as the 2025 slate includes home games against Baylor, Louisville and Miami, as well as a trip to Clemson, which defeated SMU in Charlotte a year ago. SMU’s win total of 8.5 is representative of that slate. Under feels like the way to go here.
Florida State
FSU was a disastrous 2-10 last year, and I’m not sure how much better the Noles will be. They have an opener against Alabama, a home game with Miami, as well as road games at Clemson, Florida and NC State. The Noles might be hard-pressed to make a bowl game, considering most ACC games they are in wouldn’t be considered gimmes — despite bringing in Gus Malzahn as OC and Boston College castoff Thomas Castellanos as quarterback. Under 7.5 wins is juiced but one of the few win totals I’ve already fired on.
Arizona State
ASU went from last in the Big 12 preseason poll to conference champs behind RB Cam Skattebo and QB Sam Leavitt. Was it a sign of bigger things to come under Kenny Dillingham? Or was it all a potential setup for a fall, given the departure of Skattebo and a schedule that has road games at Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State and Utah. ASU’s win total is 8.5.
Texas Tech
Tech has been active in the portal and might be one of those teams that winds up being better than its record indicates. The Red Raiders’ win total is 8.5 and five road games — Arizona State, Houston, Kansas State, Utah and West Virginia — look like possible losses.
Illinois
The Illini are everyone’s trendy Big Ten sleeper this season. Yes, there’s reason for optimism in Champaign, but expecting an Indiana-like run to the CFP might be asking a bit much. The Fighting Illini’s win total sits at 7.5 and there are likely five toss-up games, at minimum. That includes USC at home and at Duke, Indiana, Washington and Wisconsin, as well as a home game against Ohio State. Against the Buckeyes, the Illini will be a considerable underdog.
Indiana
The Hoosiers’ non-conference schedule is as laughable as it was last season in its magical 11-2 season. The Hoosiers have Old Dominion, Indiana State and Kennesaw State as their sacrificial non-conference lambs. But after having road games at UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State last year (as well as a blowout loss at Ohio State), the Hoosiers have to go to Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. The oddsmakers have posted a win total of 8.5, which certainly takes into account the three auto non-conference wins. Assuming IU loses at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State, that means it would have to run the table against Illinois, Michigan State, UCLA, at Maryland, Wisconsin and at Purdue to hit nine wins.
Michigan
Michigan’s schedule is certainly front-loaded with games at Oklahoma, Nebraska and USC in the first half of the season. This is not ideal because the Wolverines will be breaking in a new QB and replacing a couple of impact players on defense (Mason Graham and Will Johnson) and TE Colston Loveland. But survive that — which means going at least 2-1 in those three games — and the Wolverines could build up a lot of momentum prior to The Game in Ann Arbor on Nov. 29. Before the Ohio State game, the Wolverines play at Michigan State, Purdue, at Northwestern and at Maryland. Those teams combined to go 6-30 in Big Ten play last year. The Wolverines’ win total is 8.5 juiced to the Over.
Nebraska
Will the Matt Rhule Year 3 bump happen in Lincoln? The Huskers don’t have a true road game until Oct. 11 at Maryland. Michigan, USC and Iowa are in Lincoln. The true road games are Maryland, Minnesota, UCLA and Penn State. It seems like we’ve been saying it every year lately, but there’s a chance Nebraska might have only one or two losses and a potential CFP berth on the line entering the Nov. 22 trip to Penn State. If QB Dylan Raiola progresses this season, the hype will be through the roof. Hype has not reached the win total, as Nebraska is still at 7.5, which seems to indicate bettors and oddsmakers are taking a wait-and-see approach this season.
Oregon
Reigning Big Ten Champion Oregon lost QB Dillon Gabriel and other key contributors. But with road games at Northwestern, SUNJ, Iowa, Washington and Penn State, along with a home schedule where the Ducks should be double-digit favorites in every game, 10-2 and another CFP berth seems the worst-case scenario. Unless, of course, QB Dante Moore does not live up to the hype and expectations as one of the top QB recruits from his class.
Penn State
Despite reaching the CFP Semifinals last year, the Nittany Lions did nothing to change the perception of the program and the ability to win big games. Penn State lost at home to Ohio State and in the Big Ten title game. The Lions will get two more chances this year to change the narrative as they host Oregon on Sept. 27 and visit Ohio State on Nov. 1. Both are among the most-anticipated games of the regular season. Anything short of 10-2 and another CFB berth will be a disappointment. And that’s what the oddsmakers see as well, putting Penn State’s win total at 10.5.
Wisconsin
I just don’t see how this is going to go well for Wisconsin. The Badgers have the return trip to Alabama, and visit Michigan, Oregon, Indiana and Minnesota. It’s not the easiest of home slates either, with Iowa, Ohio State and Washington visiting Madison. There’s a chance the Badgers are 3-5 entering the idle week and that would make for some uneasy chatter surrounding the program. Wisconsin’s win total is 5.5, and I have already fired on the Under.
Notre Dame
The Irish open with a game at Miami and a home game against Texas A&M. That might lead to opportunities to get a better price on Notre Dame to make the CFP after a couple of games, as was the case in 2024. Winning out after those two games isn’t farfetched at all. With the final five games of the season at BC, Navy, at Pitt, Syracuse and at Stanford, it seems like an opportunity to climb up the rankings and into solid CFP contention. Notre Dame’s win total is 10.5, heavily juiced to the Under.
Florida
Florida again gets no breaks from the schedule maker. The Gators are at LSU, at Miami, have a bye, play Texas then go to A&M. Then they have Georgia, they’re at Ole Miss, Tennessee and FSU. Is DJ Lagway good enough to lead the Gators to seven wins and push them over the win total of 6.5?
Georgia
The Dawgs visit Knoxville and host Alabama before the end of September. Unlike last year, Georgia gets Texas and Ole Miss in Athens.
LSU
Despite the presence of QB Garrett Nussmeier, I’m not seeing the CFP contender buzz surrounding LSU. It feels a lot like the type of season Alabama and Ole Miss had in 2024 could be in store for the Tigers. LSU has Clemson, Florida and Ole Miss. Clemson and Ole Miss are on the road and within the first five games of the season. The Tigers also visit Alabama and Oklahoma and host South Carolina and Texas A&M. LSU’s win total is 8.5, and it sure feels like 9-3 will be hard to come by.
Oklahoma
OU underwent a massive program overhaul on the staff and roster and the early part of the schedule might allow OU to build some momentum and positive vibes. The only time the Sooners leave the state prior to the Texas game is a visit to Temple. If the Sooners can beat Michigan and/or Auburn and former QB Jackson Arnold at home, it would be vital for a winning season. The back end of the schedule is brutal. They’ve got Texas, they’re at South Carolina, play Ole Miss, they’re at Tennessee and at Alabama. Then they play Missouri and LSU. Oklahoma’s win total is 6.5 and failure to go over might result in some tough decisions having to be made in Norman.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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