Jamie Lynch looks ahead to Saturday’s Grade 1 rematch between Pic D’Orhy and L’Homme Presse plus new challenger Corbetts Cross, live on Sky Sports Racing.
It is the 31st running of a race at 3.37pm on Saturday, which is comfortable in its own skin, complimenting rather than competing against the impending Festivals.
Accepting of the renewals which are a little light by Grade 1 standards, as this one is, safe in the knowledge that on six occasions the winner of the Betfair Ascot Chase has been ranked as the best chaser in Britain that season: One Man, Kauto Star, Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti, Cyrname and Shishkin.
It’s more than a mere rematch from last year, between Pic D’Orhy and L’Homme Presse, the race inflated by the Irish invaders for once, making it more of a talent contest as well as a tactical conundrum. Let’s look at each contender for the Betfair Ascot Chase in detail.
1. Blue Lord
Jockey: J J Slevin | Trainer: Willie Mullins
There has always been a whiff of the understudy about him, in the shadow of his A-list stablemates, nevertheless winning three Grade 1s when called upon to take centre stage. But none of them were championship events, and all of them were around 2m, never looking like he wants this far, the Betfair Ascot Chase something of a swing of the bat by him in more ways than one.
Blue Lord goes to post
The best perspective of his career is in the rear-view mirror, beaten a long way on both starts since a year out, too keen in the Hilly Way and too clumsy in the Grade 1 over Christmas, meaning the questions are mounting, more than comfortable for backing him, even when the contestant is Willie Mullins.
2. Corbetts Cross
Mark Walsh | Emmet Mullins
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then Emmet Mullins will probably train it to win the Grand National. Mullins does things differently, and very successfully, which stops short of saying that Corbetts Cross coming to this race is curious at best and crazy at worst, but from the outside it does feel like a square peg in a round hole.
Lest we forget the warning from history, that this horse warmed up for the Albert Bartlett by beating Found A Fifty over 2m, but the way he ran riot in the 3¾m National Hunt Chase last March was proof positive that stamina is his strength, underlined to some extent by his defeats over shorter in Grade 1s since, outspeeded at the end of the Bowl at Aintree and out of his comfort zone around Kempton in the King George; and this race will be around 30 secs quicker still in the completion than the latter was. His rating of 163 is equivalent to L’Homme Presse and 2 lb ahead of Pic D’Orhy, but what are the chances of Corbetts Cross running to it over this trip at this track? Bigger than 5-2 for me.
3. Flegmatik
Harry Skelton | Dan Skelton
Veteran handicapper who’s winding down and here purely to pick up any pieces, much as the same stable’s Sail Away did for fourth (of four) last year.
4. L’homme Presse
Charlie Deutsch | Venetia Williams
This horse was favourite for this in 2024 but the narrow perimeters of that race resulted in a line dance to Pic D’Orhy’s tune from which L’Homme Presse could never escape nor express himself in full. The greater variables in this 50 per cent bigger field should, in theory, reduce the sway the way of Pic D’Orhy and make it more of a level playing field, a fairer fight.
This race last year was the exception rather than the rule, as he’s very good at doing what’s expected of him. On the other seven occasions that he’s been favourite for a chase and completed, L’Homme Presse has got the job done, testament to his talent and temperament, including in the Cotswold Chase last time when he and Stage Star were neck and neck after Cobden and Deutsch were craning neck and neck.
Left-handed at Cheltenham may be his natural inclination, rather than this way around, but he would have been placed in two King Georges at Kempton but for unseating at the last in 2022, and he was way ahead of Corbetts Cross in the latest renewal.
One of the best chasers in Britain over several seasons, earning more than £500,000 in prize money, L’Homme Presse has the air of a quiet achiever, of which the three key identifiers are: they show rather than boast, they learn and grow, and they are more tortoise than hare. The hare won the race last year, but the different dimensions this time can embolden a different L’Homme Presse.
5. Le Patron
David Noonan | Gary and Josh Moore
Le Patron is capable of big performances when he’s in the mood and in the rhythm, as evidenced by the Grade 1 Henry VIII in the middle of last season and a Newbury handicap (off 146) at the start of this one. It might just be that Cheltenham isn’t for him, based on another dismal display there in the December Gold Cup, though the stable was also quiet then, compared to now (five wins this week and counting).
A track like this and a smallish field like this should be right up his street, and there’s a touch of the Traffic Fluide about him, a former team-mate who might well have won this very race at 40-1 in 2020 but for falling at the last. The truth is that Le Patron needs not one but three to underperform if he’s to win, an unlikely scenario, but he may just be the kingmaker as his presence and his pace will have a bearing on others.
6. Pic D’orhy
Harry Cobden | Paul Nicholls
There are horses for courses and then there’s Pic D’Orhy and Ascot, a match made in heaven, the contours of the course plugging in perfectly with the skill set of the horse, whose speed, style and strategy makes him almost impenetrable at Ascot – in his last five races on the chase course, encompassing two Grade 1s and three Grade 2s, the only horse to have beaten him is Shishkin. The third essential element in the mix is Harry Cobden, who played his hand brilliantly in last year’s straight shootout against L’Homme Presse, creating the race waves which accentuated his advantage and diluted what Deutsch could do. Same race, same space and the same antagonist, so what can stop him again this year? The answer is one or all of the three ‘C’s: class, control and cloud.
Pic D’orhy represents Paul Nicholls’ Ditcheat team
The class query of whether he’s as good now is probably the least of his worries, with only one piece of evidence to go on (effectively a penalty kick for him around here in November), but he’s made a career out of picking his battles. A marginally bigger field may compromise his control of the race, to a lesser or larger degree, compared to last year and then there’s the cloud of the stable form, not just a shortage of stars (Pic D’Orhy is one of only two Graded winners for Nicholls this season). All the meaningful metrics are down, with eight wins at a nine per cent strike-rate (and 11 beaten favourites) since the turn of the year, compared to 26 wins at 25 per cent for the same period last year.
The time and the place? This is Pic D’Orhy’s place, but is this the right time to be weighing in with him, with a fuller field and quieter stable than last year?
Jamie Lynch’s verdict
There are reasons for a role reversal this year whereby L’Homme Presse gets his revenge on Pic D’Orhy, for whom it was a perfect storm 12 months ago. More runners equals more competition this time around, which is music to the ears of L’Homme Presse after he was on the receiving end of a Harry Cobden masterclass in 2024, and then there’s the simple fact of L’Homme Presse bringing in the best form of this season of any horse in the line-up, comfortably so.
Watch every race from Ascot on Betfair Ascot Chase Day live on Sky Sports Racing on Saturday 15th February
