Our senior form analyst Jamie Lynch looks forward to Southwell’s premier event, live on Saturday on Sky Sports Racing,
The BetUK Winter Derby at 3.15pm at Southwell on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Racing, is not quite the pinnacle it once was and if anything, it has gone more from the end of one game to the start of another one.
Though this renewal nicely occupies the middle ground, and the fact that four of the seven runners are rated 107 or higher justifies its Group 3 status. More than just ability, there’s agenda to consider, which rather muddies the waters, but it’s an intriguing puzzle. Let’s look at the contenders.
1. Claymore (Draw 4)
Jockey: Jonny Peate | Trainer: Jane Chapple-Hyam
This horse was a Royal Ascot winner in 2022 – a height he’s never again scaled in 32 months and 15 runs since, including when fourth in this race last year. The handicapper is giving him a chance here, with his rating sub-100 for the first time in a long time, but this isn’t a handicap, and it’s hard to see him reducing the five-and-three-quarter lengths he was behind stable-companion Champagne Prince in the course and distance trial. There are heavier hitters than him coming out to play this time too.
2. Pleasant Man (3)
Hollie Doyle | Martin Dunne
Pleasant Man has been around the block, from the Royal Lodge as a two-year-old when with Roger Charlton to the Adonis Hurdle for Paul Nicholls. Although he’s had a new lease of life at Southwell lately, it has been as a staying handicapper off marks in the 80s, a world away from the test he faces here. Also, he’s moved stables yet again since his win last month.
3. Royal Champion (7)
Clifford Lee | Karl Burke
Karl Burke’s charge packs more of a punch than most who turn their attention to the All-Weather in Britain, having contested three Group 1s in his time, beaten only by Nations Pride in the Canadian International last October, before a spell in Australia. He was back with a bang in the Quebec at Lingfield, on his debut for Karl Burke, when making short work of synthetics stalwart Tyrrhenian Sea, who subsequently won the listed Tandridge Stakes.
Royal Champion goes to post at Southwell on Saturday
The trip and the track makes for more of a stamina test than Royal Champion has ever faced, but both his run-out speed (38.5 mph) and sustained stride length (25.2 feet) at the end of Lingfield shows he had plenty left, and it’s worth remembering that his dam won the Lancashire Oaks. With his ability and adaptability, there’s a case for saying that Royal Champion should be nearer even-money for this assignment.
4. Champagne Prince (1)
William Buick | Jane Chapple-Hyam
This runner is a conspicuous case of why horses sometimes have split ratings. He’s officially 10lb better on the All-Weather, but the gap is even greater if anything. This horse is still a maiden on turf (after five runs), whereas only one horse has ever beaten him in six starts on synthetics.
Andrew Balding stated at the turn of the year that the then 111-rated Eydon would be targeting the Winter Derby, but he hasn’t been declared, the reason presumably being that Champagne Prince despatched him not once but twice, even easier the second time, in the course and distance trial. He’s effectively efficient and efficiently effective, but the chances are that he’ll fall short against the heightened horsepower of one or two of these rivals.
5. Military Academy (5)
Rab Havlin | John and Thady Gosden
Royal Champion has Group 1s in the rear-view mirror, but Military Academy could still have them in front of him. He showed the power and promise from his first campaign which spanned just 73 days, out-run by fully-formed Burdett Road in his first listed race but rebounding to win in style at Kempton from Royal Champion’s team-mate Aimeric.
Both of those were over one-and-a-half miles, meaning he has a box ticked that Royal Champion hasn’t. Stamina at Southwell is often the final answer, but the Gosdens have stressed that the Winter Derby is a “springboard” for Military Academy to a primary target in Bahrain, in the same way it was for Lord North ahead of the Dubai Turf, though he still won in 2023, while you wouldn’t think cheekpieces would be deployed without some intent for Southwell.
6. Persica (2)
Sean Levey | Richard Hannon
He went off at 50-1, but the fact he traded at a low of 9-4 in-running for the Champion Stakes tells you how he travelled even in that exalted company. That was on the back of beating Enfjaar and Eydon in the listed Donside Cup at Ayr where he again showcased the skills of an ideal All-Weather horse – his only two goes so far on synthetics have generated a first and third (to Notable Speech).
Persica
It may be that one or both of the four-month absence and 11 furlong trip finds him out in the end, having tried beyond one-and-a-quarter miles only once before, when mid-field in the King George V at Royal Ascot. However, he’s the type to raise his game again as a four-year-old, and he’s only 3lbs behind Royal Champion on official ratings, plus he gets 1lb weight-for-age.
7. Alanya (6)
David Egan | Natalia Lupini
This horse was the subject of an Interesting stable switch since last year, as she’s the type that Natalia Lupini will do well with, but it won’t be the immediate transformation required for this company, out of her depth here as she was in the Pride Stakes on her final start of 2024, her mark only in the low 90s.
Jamie Lynch’s verdict
This looks a simple case of backing the best horse, Royal Champion, who might be odds-on rather than odds-against had he gone to the trial and proven his stamina, the one and only question mark against him, though it may not be much of a query at all looking at his end-race data from Lingfield. Persica is the preference forecast for the forecast, over the prepping Military Academy.
