Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Now that we’re all flush with cash after sweeping our Masters bets, the next obstacle in the sports betting world is the 2025 NFL Draft.
Draft betting definitely isn’t what it used to be, mostly because sharp bettors destroyed it for a handful of years, but betting opportunities still exist in the market. Just understand that the days of betting a player “Under” 40.5 to see his market close at 33.5 while he gets selected 22nd overall are gone.
We’ll never forget you, Quay Walker.
BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel have added a few more options to their menus over the last week and there are still a couple of days left until Circa Sports in Las Vegas opens its markets and sharpens the market.
Circa is uber-respected as a market-making sportsbook and if it opens a player’s draft position at O/U 13.5 with domestic shops sitting at 15.5, it won’t take long until everyone gets near Circa’s number. That’s the way it works.
So, what’s the move?
There are two prospects with draft position numbers I expect to move over the next nine days, along with a flier I like on a quick riser at wide receiver. I’m also not scared to lay juice on the right bet. Some people see -180 and -225 on certain players and run for the hills. Those numbers can be cheap.
I’ll never forget when Matt Youmans and I were hosting together at VSiN back in 2018, and we bet “Over” 1.5 offensive linemen in the top 10 at -220. Quenton Nelson was a lock and the market was torn on Mike McGlinchey.
Days later, the “Over” shifted from -220 to -800, before eventually being taken off the board. McGlinchey went ninth overall to San Francisco.
Here are three NFL Draft bets I would make right now.
Colston Loveland Over/Under 19.5 (-225 at DraftKings)
I’ve got an inkling that Circa is going to open much lower here. Loveland is built for the modern-day NFL, a massive 6-foot-5, 245-pound target that catches everything thrown in his direction. There’s a possibility he goes as low as No. 14 to Indianapolis, but there are several teams behind the Colts that need to bolster their passing attacks. And again, I have no issue laying -225 to go “Under” 19.5 when the market could drop a whole spot or two.
PICK: Colston Loveland (-225) Under 19.5
Mykel Williams Over/Under 15.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
There are worse ideas than falling for defensive players from Georgia. Kirby Smart continues to develop studs for the next level and Williams is yet another potential superstar that’ll soon play on Sundays. As the Philadelphia Eagles just proved, the game is about protecting and getting to the quarterback. Williams has tremendous size and skill, and there should be a team that looks to unleash even more of his upside in the top 15.
PICK: Mykel Williams (-120) Under 15.5
Matthew Golden first WR after Travis Hunter (+170 at BetMGM)
Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan is the current favorite at -250, and I simply disagree with the price gap. Despite putting up big numbers with the Wildcats, NFL scouts have questioned McMillan’s speed and makeup. So don’t be surprised if he slides a bit. Meanwhile, Golden flashed his blazing speed all over the SEC at Texas and that’s the style of receiver who plays at the next level. We’re betting the ‘dog here, so don’t get crazy, but I think he’s live at +170.
PICK: Matthew Golden (+170) first WR after Travis Hunter
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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