Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Every year, the Los Angeles Lakers tend to be a popular bet in NBA championship futures odds. Having LeBron James will do that for a team.
Add in Luka Dončić via trade, coupled with the Lakers’ strong run the past seven weeks, and it’s a booster shot for the public betting masses.
“The Lakers were already our biggest liability before the Dončić trade. Since the trade, that liability has only gotten bigger,” Caesars Sports head of NBA trading David Lieberman said.
Five weeks after the blockbuster deal, and five weeks before the regular season ends, Lieberman offers his insights on the Lakers’ NBA championship odds and action.
From Pretender to Contender
Taking championship bets and being a championship-caliber team aren’t the same thing. When the season began, the Lakers were in the +2500 range in NBA Finals futures odds, well behind the favorites.
And it got worse before it got better. Caesars slid Los Angeles out to +4000 at one point.
“They definitely weren’t looking like a title contender,” Lieberman said.
But then came the trade heard ‘round the world on Feb. 1, when the Lakers shipped Anthony Davis to Dallas to acquire Dončić.
“Right away, we went to +1600. We knew we were gonna take some bets, so we wanted to get ahead of it,” Lieberman said, noting the Lakers’ are always attractive in the Las Vegas market, but also nationwide. “With Nevada, we get all the California people, and nationally, the Lakers are one of the most popular teams.”
Well-Timed Hot Streak
Even before Dončić got into the lineup, the Lakers were trending upward.
Los Angeles was on a 9-1 run ahead of Dončić’s Feb. 10 debut, a 132-113 home rout of the Utah Jazz. The Lakers are 9-2 with Luka — including a current eight-game win streak — and are 18-3 in their last 21 games.
On Thursday night, L.A. notched a riveting 113-109 overtime win vs. the visiting New York Knicks. With LeBron, Luka and that 18-3 run, bettors have plenty of incentive to jump on the Lakers.
“That’s a recipe for people wanting to put money on the Lakers to win the title,” Lieberman said. “You’ve got two of the biggest stars in the NBA, and it’s the Lakers. Combine those factors, and the action is not surprising.”
Now, Caesars has the Lakers as the +900 fourth choice in NBA Finals odds, trailing only the Boston Celtics (+190), Oklahoma City Thunder (+205) and Cleveland Cavaliers (+550).
Los Angeles’ much shorter odds aren’t slowing down bettors at all.
“Action is strong and steady. They continue to bet the Lakers and are OK with the prices,” Lieberman said.
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Wrestling With The West
Back on Jan. 19, the Lakers lost to the in-town rival Los Angeles Clippers 116-102. That left Los Angeles with a modest 22-18 record, not the mark of a legit championship contender.
Fast-forward to March 7, and the Lakers are 40-21. That’s the second-best record in the Western Conference, behind only the scorching-hot Thunder (51-11).
So is L.A. now championship caliber?
Lieberman says yes, but the Lakers first have to get out of the Western Conference. Oklahoma City has been superb all season, Denver is again a strong contender and Golden State — boosted by its acquisition of Jimmy Butler — is quickly improving in NBA Finals odds, as well.
“I think it’s realistic,” Lieberman said of L.A. winning the West. “Luka beat the Thunder last year, with a good-but-not-great Dallas team. Now, with LeBron James, Luka could get another crack at the Thunder.”
Oklahoma City is the -175 favorite to win the West, while the Lakers are the +375 second choice, followed by the Nuggets and Warriors at +650.
Said Lieberman: “It just comes down to: Can the Lakers get through the gauntlet in the West?”
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Tricky Title
If the Lakers run that gauntlet, then there’s a fair chance that the defending champion Celtics are waiting.
“The NBA Finals are a little trickier,” Lieberman said. “I think if Boston is healthy, I can’t see anyone beating them. But I think it would be a great series. The Lakers could beat the Celtics, but it’d be a more difficult matchup.”
However, it could well be Cleveland representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. Through March 6, the Cavaliers are a torrid 52-10, the best record in the league.
“If the Cavs get out of the East, it opens it up for the Lakers. The Cavaliers’ ceiling is not quite as high as a fully healthy Boston team,” Lieberman said.
Regardless, the one certainty is that L.A. will continue to attract a lot of NBA championship money.
“The Lakers have been the most-bet team all year, and even more so since the trade.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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