Jason McIntyre
Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
For this next round of March Madness, I’m putting my money on a four-team teaser. That’s my biggest bet of the season.
What could go wrong?
But let’s discuss before we dive into it, because the teaser won’t be popular for many reasons.
The first reason is that you shouldn’t tease basketball — ever. However, I’m against blanket rules when it comes to gambling. Rules like never betting on double-digit favorites in the NFL should be broken — at least sometimes.
I think you can pull it off here if you believe the 1-seeds are very, very good. By net rating, those teams are in a class by themselves, a clear 3.50 plus above Tennessee and Alabama, who rank fifth and sixth.
Check out my teaser, along with a couple of my Sweet 16 wagers.
Four-team, 6.5-point teaser (+200): Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 1 Duke
The Blue Devils are the best team in the country, and the vibes are similar to UConn from the last two years.
That being said, there is cause for concern. Arizona’s Caleb Love — a former UNC star — could go postal, drop 30 and this game could end up being a one-possession contest in the final minutes. Duke’s offense is so good, though. The Blue Devils shot 17-for-23 on 2-pointers against Baylor. They won an earlier meeting in November at Arizona by double digits. The Blue Devils started three freshmen.
No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 1 Florida
The Gators survived the scare from UConn. Now they must go against the “Crab Five,” who won at the buzzer on a bank shot by freshman Derik Queen.
The Terps have zero depth. The lack of depth will be a big issue when facing Florida. And that’s because the Gators go eight deep and can handle foul trouble on the frontline, as they did against the Huskies. Florida has four players 6-foot-9 or taller to throw at Queen.
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 1 Auburn
Yes, I’m going against Michigan again.
The Wolverines turn the ball over way too much (324th in the country), and they are terrible at shooting the 3-ball (201st in the country). Auburn has too many weapons. They’ve got players like freshman Tahaad Pettiford, who scored 23 points against Creighton and All-American Johni Broome. They’ve got a sniper in Miles Kelly, who had 30 points against Kentucky and 25-year-old Chad Baker-Mazara.
I did bet Auburn to cover the spread, but if that’s not for you, teasing them down to win this game by one against a scrappy — but limited — Michigan team feels safer.
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Houston
This is the most dangerous game in the quartet because it’s in Indianapolis. And this is where Purdue will have a decided home-court advantage.
But the Boilermakers have the second-worst defense left in the tournament, and they beat two low majors (High Point, McNeese State) to get here. The Cougars scare me, though. At the end, against Gonzaga, they couldn’t handle the full-court press, and they might struggle defensively against rugged Trey Kaufman-Renn, who went for 22 and 15 in their second-round win.
PICK: Four-team teaser
Duke -8.5 to -2
Florida -6 to +.5
Auburn -8 to -1.5
Houston -8 to -1.5
Bruce Pearl on Auburn’s success, expectations for Sweet 16
No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
I’m fading John Calipari after an upset of his rival Rick Pitino on Saturday.
I’m not sure Arkansas has enough offense to win this, unless the Red Raiders shoot as horribly as St. John’s did against the Razorbacks (35% field goals, 2-for-22 on 3s).
Because they have so many guys with NBA potential, the Razorbacks never know who might show up. The entire roster is very boom or bust. Texas Tech is expected to get back third-leading scorer Chance McMillian for this one, and his offense will be huge. He’s got four games of 20 points or more this season, including 23 against Houston.
Between Darrion Williams (28 points against Drake) and All-American center JT Toppin, the Red Raiders are a matchup nightmare. Don’t make me list Calipari’s memorable March collapses. Furthermore, he doesn’t have the best team here.
PICK: Texas Tech (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama
I’m going to take a chance on BYU +5 in what should be a track meet.
The Cougars haven’t fared well when they’ve stepped up in class against super-athletic teams. They lost to Ole Miss in November, got smacked 31 by Houston and lost to Texas Tech. But that was all early in the season. They handled the speed of VCU well in the opening round and then survived a furious late Wisconsin rally.
BYU goes nine deep, and while no rotation player is taller than point guard Egor Demin, the Cougars play big. They grabbed 13 offensive boards against the Badgers.
I don’t see either team getting stops. BYU is the worst defense left in the Tournament. Outside of last year’s run to the Final Four, Alabama’s Nate Oats has had two big Sweet 16 clunkers — losing to San Diego State two years ago and falling in OT to UCLA in 2021.
And if either of these teams is looking ahead to Duke, it’s certainly Alabama. The Tide came into the season rated No. 2 in the country.
PICK: BYU (+5) to lose by fewer than 5 points or win outright
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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