Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
We’re heading to the Final Four for college basketball, and I’m back with a few wagers for the next round of March Madness hoops. Let’s dive into my picks.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Duke
I’ll be the fool to step in front of the Duke train here.
If you look at the composite of KenPom, Torvik and Haslam, that grades the game out as a pick ’em. Duke has lost three times all season. Houston has lost just four times, with three of those losses coming in OT. We’ve got the top-ranked offense in Duke against the top-ranked defense in Houston, according to KenPom.
The Cougars have bodies like Joseph Tugler and J’Wan Roberts to make life miserable on the interior and deny Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel clean looks. That also negates some of the impact Khaman Malauch has on the other end of the floor where, remember, Houston is the No. 2 3-point shooting team in the country (39.7%). The Cougars struggled in the first half of the Sweet 16 against Purdue but have been much better since.
It really should be a fascinating matchup as to which numbers we think are more representative.
The ACC was down bad this year and that’s where Duke accumulated many of its numbers. Sure, the Blue Devils had non-conference wins, including against Auburn and Arizona, but wasn’t the Big 12 a lot better than the ACC this year? And Houston ripped through it, barring an OT loss to Texas Tech, which really should be playing this weekend.
Houston has seven wins over top 15 KenPom teams (and three losses). Duke is 4-0. I wonder, too, how much extra motivation Houston has after last year’s Sweet 16. The Cougars likely would have beaten the Blue Devils, but Jamal Shead injured his ankle with the Cougars up six with about seven minutes left in the first half, and they scored just 35 points in 27 minutes without him.
Sure, it’s a different — and better — Duke team, but also a healthy and more complete Houston team.
Duke might win and win easily, and I’ll be proven wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time. But I think the Duke brand has this number higher than it should be and there’s a tad of disrespect for Kelvin Sampson’s squad.
PICK: Houston (+5) to lose by fewer than 5 points or win outright
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 1 Auburn
Call me skeptical, but I don’t think Johni Broome is anywhere near 100 percent and that’s obviously a massive problem.
I think his return to the Elite Eight game was more cosmetic.
“Can you just be a decoy for a few minutes until the result is academic?”
Yes, he knocked down a 3, but he looked like he wanted no part of using his right arm on that one big rebound where he flung the outlet immediately with his left arm.
The Gators put up 90 earlier this season at Auburn and Alijah Martin and Micah Handgloten didn’t even play.
If Broome isn’t fully healthy, the effect on the defensive end will be huge.
The Gators will get a ton of second and third chances and that’s the only reason they are still alive here. I’m a bit surprised the side hasn’t run here (Florida is still -2.5) but I do think, at minimum, the Gators will put up their share of points. And it will be up to Auburn’s perimeter shooters to match them.
PICK: Florida team total Over 81.5 points
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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