Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The NCAA Tournament rolls out so much basketball, particularly over the first two days, that it’s rightly proclaimed March Madness.
But if we’re all being honest here, the Madness is actually in this week’s conference tournaments.
There are far more games. That means far more betting opportunities in conference tournament odds. And not just on the games themselves; wagering on conference tournament futures is also attractive.
And potentially lucrative — if you can accurately forecast a dark horse.
College basketball betting aficionado Andy Molitor has a couple such teams in mind, wagering on championship futures odds in the Big Ten and Big East Tournaments.
Scarlet Letter
Michigan State is rightly favored to win the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans claimed the regular-season title and are +260 or so to win the conference tourney. That means a $100 bet would profit $260 ($360 total payout) if Tom Izzo’s squad does it.
But where’s the fun in betting on the favorite? Molitor, director of content for Betsperts, is more interested in betting a little to win a lot with a longer shot. As in +20000 — or in more relatable terms, 200/1.
“A really fun long shot is Rutgers at 200/1 or more. Think 2023-24 North Carolina State, which won five games in five days, including two over ranked, in-state rivals, to take the ACC Tourney,” Molitor said.
Last year, N.C. State lost its last four regular-season games to finish a lackluster 17-14. But the Wolfpack then tore through the ACC Tournament, beating Duke and North Carolina along the way, as double-digit underdogs in both games.
In fact, N.C. State was just getting started. The Wolfpack ultimately reached the Final Four before bowing out against Purdue.
If the Scarlet Knights somehow make a Big Ten title run, a $100 bet could become $20,000.
Star Power
Granted, there’s a reason Rutgers is 200/1 in Big Ten Tournament odds. The Scarlet Knights enter the postseason with an underwhelming 15-16 record and are the No. 11 seed in a 15-team field.
“The defense, especially in the interior, has taken a big step back after losing Clifford Omoruyi to Alabama,” Molitor said, noting the center who transferred after last season. “But this is a team that has two potential top-five draft picks on it.”
That would be the freshmen duo of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. Harper is averaging 19.3 points per game and Bailey is putting up 18.2 points.
“We’ve seen stars shine and elevate teams at the right time,” Molitor said. “I won’t speculate as to the motivation of other teams in the Big Ten. But with most of the top teams already locked into at-large [NCAA Tournament] bids, Bailey and Harper can certainly help Rutgers make a run as a lower seed.
“Being in the section of the bracket with a reeling Michigan team doesn’t hurt either.”
The Wolverines are the No. 3 seed, but have lost their last three games and four of their last six.
Fear The Musketeers
In the Big East, St. John’s has been the story of the season. Rick Pitino’s squad is running hot, going 16-1 in its last 17 games.
The Red Storm (27-4 overall) are certainly in the national championship conversation. And they’re favored in Big East Tournament futures odds, in the +150 range.
Molitor isn’t stretching nearly as far as he did on Rutgers. But he’s skipping past the first four teams and going to No. 5 choice Xavier to win the Big East.
“The return of St. John’s as a relevant team has been fun. And you can argue that it is good for college basketball as a whole,” Molitor said. “But this is a top-heavy league that has at least six viable candidates to take down the tourney this week.”
Crowded House
In Big East Tournament futures odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, five teams have odds of +850 or shorter:
- St. John’s +155
- Creighton +370
- UConn +400
- Marquette +550
- Xavier +850
The sixth team Molitor alluded to is Villanova, at +1500. It won’t be easy, but Molitor thinks Xavier is a worthy play.
“I don’t love the path, having to go through the Red Storm to reach the finals,” he said. “But of the top teams, Xavier is the most balanced and is coming in hot. They’ve won seven straight, including a dominant performance over second-seeded Creighton.”
Indeed, on Mar. 1, the Musketeers were modest two-point home favorites and hammered the Bluejays 83-61.
“They make their 3-pointers at the second-highest clip in the league, and they get to the free throw line more than anyone in the Big East,” Molitor said, noting the Musketeers’ are shooting almost 80% from the line.
“They are likely on the right side of the bubble. But a nice performance this week won’t hurt.”
It certainly wouldn’t hurt your wallet if Xavier goes the distance. At +850, a $100 bet would profit $850. That’d be pretty good seed money for the NCAA Tournament — after, you know, this week’s Madness.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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